Re: Winning the Covid-19 war

Posted by Paul H (admin) on
URL: http://uk-hbbr-forum.61.s1.nabble.com/Winning-the-Covid-19-war-tp4031334p4031438.html

In reply to Steve's link:

Lockdown stories and conspiracy theories will be told by our children for decades. There was talk once that China had too many old people.

Moving swiftly on, Dilys checked UK mortality figures for the start of 2020. January 50,000 and February 40,000. January's was probably higher due to seasonal influenza, but didn't appear on the news cycle.
The mortality for 2019 was about 500,000 or 1400 per day, again that wasn't in the news cycle. If (a big if) we are near the peak, C-19 has taken fewer than life does in a "normal" year.

Some of the old folk that die from C-19 would have died from something else - we simply do not know the full statistics yet and might not know until 2021.

If 1% is the worst case C-19 mortality, and its inevitable the whole world will get infected before a vaccine is available, then 50 million in the UK will get it leading to 500,000 worst case C-19 deaths.
That's still no worse than what life takes in a "normal" year.

Ok double in the first year, which is very sad, but with herd immunity, vaccines and no confirmed mutation of C-19, subsequent years should be better due, I'm sorry to say, a lack of vulnerable people.

However economically there will be a glut of houses for sale and very limited cash from buyers, some of them in negative equity. Who wants to live in a densely populated city like London with sky-high prices, and transport based on tightly packed petri-dishes. Guess what all that does for house prices?

Happy Days, sunny here. Stay well for 18 months (t&c apply)
Paul